Alaksandr Milinkievich meets Minsk activists
The latest changes of the foreign policy of our country were considered during the talk, as well as the peculiarities of the next political campaign and of the general situation in Belarus.
When asked if the election of Bronisław Komorowski as Poland’s president will influence the relations of Poland with the Belarusian civil society, the leader of the Movement for Freedom (MFF) expressed his confidence in the fact that the support of the democratization processes in Belarus will continue.
Milinkievich thinks that “Despite certain disagreements in Poland’s home policy, the major political forces of the country speak in a single voice concerning Belarus. Poland stands for the development of cooperation of our country with the EU, and for the improvement of the dialogue. At the same time, out western neighbour has supported the Belarusian civil society for a long time – Belsat TV satellite channel, Radio Racyja, the Kastus Kalinouski Programme for students, etc. Together with Sweden, Poland was the advocate of the Eastern Partnership Initiative, and of the inclusion of Belarus into this initiative. For our state to be democratic, independent, and predictable is of strategic importance for our western neighbour. The newly elected Poland’s leader is an experienced politician, was the activist of The Solidarity anti-communist movement, has always been interested in the situation in Belarus, and has always had an active and firm attitude towards the events in our country. Moreover, he has certain sentiments towards Belarus, since he belongs to the noble line that has Belarusian roots, as well”, Milinkievich says.
The participants discussed the reasons of the “gas wars” between Belarus and Russia.
Milinkievich thinks that Lukashenka lost a will to unite with Russia after Putin got to power. A mere rhetoric remained. However, Moscow demanded actions, not words. Finally, Russia began to exert pressure. Russia aims at creating political, military, and economic blocs with the post-Soviet countries. It is very important for us to preserve good-neighbourly, mutually beneficial, and transparent relations with Russia – however, European integration should remain to be our strategic objective. It is rather likely that Russia would support a figure alternative to Lukashenka at the presidential election.
“The limitation of export of Belarusian goods to Russia, the increase in the gas price, the payment of huge interests for Russia’s credits beginning from 2011, and the construction of oil and gas pipelines by-passing Belarus − all this will considerably complicate the economic condition of our country. Unfortunately, we have an energy-intensive, inefficient, and (mainly) uncompetitive industry – and therefore, aren’t ready for market relations. The current leadership is responsible for the absence of timely reforms, and the time is extremely limited”, the MFF leader thinks.
In Milinkievich’s opinion, the urgent economic and political modernization is the only way out. The dialogue with Brussels gives great opportunities to us for successful reforms and for the entry into the European economic space. The attempts to “survive” with the help of the imitation of liberalization could end fatally. Also, the China’s model of which our head of state is very fond of couldn’t be implemented here, since we do not live Asia.
The meeting’s participants also considered the likely alternatives of development of the events at the nearest presidential election, the possibility of appearance of a candidate who would rely on Russia’s support, and the scenarios of actions of the national opposition.
The MFF leader described the attempts to find a single candidate among everyone willing to participate with no regard to ideological criteria as a dangerous game with politics. Infantile political competitions could really unite neither the opposition nor the protesting society. The main thing today is not “who” but “where” – not the person who would replace Lukashenka, but the path by which the new president would lead Belarus.
Milinkievich thinks the pro-Russian candidate will appear a bit later. In his or her rhetoric, this person would be neither pro-Russian nor pro-Western, and wouldn’t try to unite the protest electorate with a positive Belarusian idea but with a “be-friends-against-someone” principle. The pro-Belarusian forces should demonstrate their responsibility, should unite, and should propose their model of the Belarusian state, their vision of the country’s future as an independent and a European state.
There are no elections as such in Belarus. The MFF leader believes it’s very important to use this political campaign in order to mobilize people, and to extend the communication with them. A great temptation is to boycott the so called “election”. This is a moral position. However, such scenario shouldn’t be grounded just on a “right attitude” but should have very serious reasons in the conditions of an authoritarian state.
“The rise to power of a new populist – a pro-Russian one, for example – becomes likely in the conditions of serious economic problems in the country. It is vital that everyone understands that the current fight isn’t only for human rights but also for the country’s independence that could be lost very easily. That’s why I can’t agree with those who think that “money has no smell” and intend to campaign with the help of Russian money – sooner or later, a bill with a well-known demand (the loss of independence) would be delivered”, Milinkievich said.
When asked of how the victory could be achieved in the absence of real elections, Milinkievich noted that it isn’t always possible to achieve everything at once. It could be important to clear the way: “We are engaged in the civil society’s support and development. This is a long way, and we would develop a citizen’s sense even after the victory over the authoritarianism”.
“The problem isn’t only in Lukashenka, but in people’s heads, first of all. They should understand such life is unworthy, indecent, and shameful. The authorities wouldn’t find any new supporters because they are consistently losing people’s confidence. However, we also don’t have the majority’s support yet. The evolution goes on, and the positive processes evolve. The sense of dignity and protest grows among citizens, and this increases the optimism”, the MFF leader believes.
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